SNEAKING IN THE BACK DOOR

It's do or die time at the World Cup. With the last round of group games to take place over the next few days, heartache, joy and drama awaits.

As always, it's squeaky bum time for quite a few of the big boys. France, runners-up four years ago, have the most difficult situation as their destiny is out of their hands. They have to beat South Africa in their last game - probably by a few goals - and hope that Mexico and Uruguay don't play out a draw which would take them both through. And by the way, in case you haven't heard, the French squad refused to train today - in protest at the sending home of Nicolas Anelka. France appear to be in complete meltdown, and barring an extraordinary turnaround their World Cup looks over.

The defending champions Italy have just played out a frustrating 1-1 draw with New Zealand, a result which leaves their progress out of Group F in doubt. Their situation suddenly has a similar look about it to that of England in Group C, who have registered two points from their opening two games against the USA and Algeria. England face Slovenia on Wednesday afternoon and Italy will play Slovakia 24 hours later; and both nations are facing the very real possibility of the unthinkable - elimination from the World Cup at the group stage.

Of the two, I would say England have the more difficult task, simply because their last game is against the group leaders who only need a point to ensure their qualification and at the same time almost certainly put England out. Slovenia may well pack players behind the ball and seek to frustrate England, something the Algerians did to great effect. Italy, on the other hand, should have more of a chance to get at their opponents Slovakia, for whom a draw will count for nothing.

The World Cup only comes round every four years, and that's why it is felt so passionately by fans everywhere. It's so intense, a defeat in the group stages is felt so deeply and is taken so personally. It's the end of the world until the next game.

Four years is also enough time for us to forget certain realities about the World Cup. The things that seem impossible when you are living the roller-coaster ride of the tournament, in the intensity of the moment, can be the very realities that actually come to pass. Let me invite you to remember history as I try to sell to you the extreme importance of sneaking through the back door into the knock-out stages.

Cast you mind back if you can to Italia 90. Defending champions Argentina were shambolic in their opening game against Cameroon and went down 1-0. They recovered to beat the Soviet Union and draw with Romania, results which saw them qualify as one of four best third placed teams. Their reward was a second round clash with Brazil, who had cruised their group with three wins. You can guess what happened if you don't remember...Yes, Argentina put Brazil out 1-0 in an extraordinary game, and went on to win their quarter-final and semi-final on penalties against Yugoslavia and Italy respectively. Argentina were a poor side and rode their luck, but having sneaked through the back door in their group they ended up in the Final.

Four years later at USA 94 the Italians also made it to the Final despite having lost their opening match against the Republic of Ireland. That group ended up with all four teams finishing on four points each (the only time in World Cup history that this has ever happened) and Italy - as Argentina had done four years earlier - only qualified in third place. In the second round only a last minute equalizer by Roberto Baggio staved off a shock defeat to Nigeria.

The Italians in 1982 provide us with another spectacular example of how things can turn round for a team - and for an individual player. Italy drew all three of their group games against Peru, Poland and Cameroon - only scoring two goals in the process. They only went through by virtue of having scored one more goal than Cameroon. After that, nobody was talking about Italy as potential World Champions that year, especially when in the second group phase they were paired with Argentina and Brazil, with only one semi-final place available amongst the three of them. However, Italy beat them both in the space of six days and went on to beat Poland in the semi-final and West Germany in the Final. Italian striker Paulo Rossi had done nothing at all in the first group phase but his manager stuck faith with him, and his hat-trick against Brazil opened the floodgates. Two more in the semi and the opening goal in the Final gave Rossi six goals in three games and the Golden Boot.

As despondent as English, French, Italian - and perhaps even Spanish - fans may be feeling, take heart from this history lesson of the World Cup. The back door is still open. The team that dares may just sneak through it and find that it opens up to the Promised Land. This week will contain tears, and the dreams of some will die over the next few days. But strange things happen in football, just as they do in life. Three weeks tonight we could be gearing up for a France v Italy Final again. Or England v Spain. You never know.